GTA Housing Market Stabilizes After Six Months of Decline – Will New HST Rebate Propel Growth?
Toronto, Ontario – June 14, 2026 –
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market is showing signs of stabilization after a tumultuous six months, according to the latest data released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). While overall transaction volume remains below pre-pandemic levels, there’s a notable shift away from the rapid price declines witnessed earlier in the year. The benchmark home price now sits at $946,500, reflecting a 6.7% decrease year-over-year and a slight month-over-month increase of 0.3%. However, the average sold price is a more telling figure at $1,069,700, offering a clearer picture of the current market dynamics.
“We’re seeing a clear transition,” explains Ben Carter, Senior Housing Analyst at Nova Capital Investments. “The frenzied bidding wars of 2022 and early 2023 are firmly in the rearview mirror. We’ve entered a period of more measured activity, driven largely by higher interest rates and a growing inventory of properties available for sale.”
Sales and Inventory: A Buyer’s Market Persists
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) currently stands at a modest 37%, firmly establishing the GTA market as a buyer’s market. This indicates that demand is still below supply, preventing a drastic price recovery, though it’s certainly a step up from the historic lows seen in late 2023.
Mortgage Rate Impacts
Variable mortgage rates are hovering around 3.3%, while a 5-year fixed rate sits at 4.09%. These rates continue to exert downward pressure on affordability, affecting buyer sentiment and transaction volumes. “Mortgage rates are the dominant factor influencing the market right now,” states Sarah Chen, a mortgage broker with Dominion Lending Centres. “Potential buyers are increasingly cautious, and many are waiting to see if rates will continue to decrease.”
Single-Family Homes vs. Condos: A Tale of Two Markets
The GTA market is exhibiting distinct performance differences between single-family homes and condominiums. Single-family homes are demonstrating surprising resilience and even outperforming the broader market. This is largely attributed to the recently expanded Home Buyers’ Amount (HBA) and subsequent HST rebate program for new builds. The rebate, which effectively reduces the purchase price by a significant amount, is proving a powerful incentive for buyers looking to purchase newly constructed homes.
“The HST rebate is a game-changer for new construction,” says David Lee, a real estate developer with Sterling Homes. “It’s significantly lowering the upfront cost of a new home, making them more accessible to a wider range of buyers. This is driving demand, particularly in submarkets with a high concentration of new developments.”
Conversely, the condo market is facing considerable price pressure due to a substantial increase in supply. New condo projects are flooding the market, leading to increased competition and downward pressure on prices. “The condo market is still saturated,” notes Carter. “Developers are battling to absorb the massive amount of inventory, and this is pushing condo prices downward, particularly in the downtown core.” Condo appreciation rates are significantly lower than those of single-family homes.
Looking Ahead
Economists predict that the GTA housing market will remain relatively stable in the short term, with continued pressure on condo prices and a more favorable environment for single-family homes. The key drivers will be mortgage rates, government policies, and overall economic conditions. Further adjustments to the HST rebate program could also significantly impact the new construction sector.
“While a major price crash is unlikely, a substantial period of sustained growth is also improbable,” concludes Chen. “The market is settling into a new normal, characterized by longer selling times, more negotiation, and a greater emphasis on value.”
